My Forecast of Election Results
By: Obie Usategui
10/28/2024

So, for all those that are now suffering from anxiety and panic attacks as we wait for the results of what I consider probably [the] most consequential elections in the history of this nation, I hope my narrative today will help you soothe some of that anxiety. What I have done for you today is I have played around with numbers only because doing so has been a part of my life.

No, I am not a pollster, nor do I have the powers of a Nostradamus, [the] most renown seer in history – a person who is supposed to be able, through supernatural insight see what the future holds. As we all know, during any elections, seers become notoriously important, if only nowadays we call them “pollsters”. To put it mildly, during any election period, we are bombarded with polls, day in and day out, all day long.

I must be honest in saying that I have always cast a shadow of doubt on polls and pollsters as I find them all intrinsically flawed with too many variables. That said, nonetheless, we have to admit within a certain margin of errors, we have no better metrics to be able to forecast results of an election, meaning that we must make the best of what polls have to offer in order to make election results predictions.

So, to make matters as simple and straightforward as I possibly can, I have made my analysis based on the two major criteria as follows: 1) the popular vote, and 2) the electoral college.

As we all know, or should know, the way our electoral process works, you can win the popular vote and still lose the presidency if you do not win the electoral votes – the latter being the one that gives states electoral votes based on share of the population. Our electoral system was specifically designed so that there would be a fair and equal opportunity to win the presidency.

So, let us take a look first at the popular vote. I use as the basis for my analysis, the actual results of the 2020 presidential elections as follows: In Millions Biden 81.28 51.3% Trump 74.22 46.8% Others: 2.94 1.9% ________ Total Vote: 158.45 100% Difference Biden / Trump: 7.06 4.5%

As shown in this table, Biden won over Trump by a difference of 7.06 million popular votes. Now, in my humble opinion, I think these elections are going to be won or lost by changes in demographics; in major minority changes of voters, which all polls have been reflecting.

The two minorities making a move to the Republican Party are: 1) Black votes [Male Black voters], and 2) Latino votes. And take my word for it, it will be these two groups that will decide who will be our next president.

Now, to analyze how the changes of these two minorities would affect the elections, I used as my base, the actual exit poll votes in 2020 as compared to what the most recent polls of October 25th, 2024, are predicting, as shown below:

1) Black Voters Analysis:

In 2020, the combined Black voters’ turnout, both men and women were: 12% of a total of 158.45 million, which is equivalent to 19.0 million votes. Of this number, 90% of these Blacks voted for Democrats and only 9% voted Republican. This 9% was equivalent to 1.71 million who voted Republican. Now, as of October 25th, polls say that this time around, in 2024, there will be 15% of Blacks that will vote Republican, which is approximately 2.85 million. So, let’s do some simple math: Year 2024 2.85 15% 2020 1.71 9% ______ Net Increase in Black Rep. Voters: 1.14 million

2) Latino Voters Analysis:

Now, let’s do the same math with Latino voters. In 2020, the combined Latino voters’ turnout was 13% just 1% more than Blacks, which was equivalent to 20.5 million votes. Of this number 63% voted for Democrats and 27% for Republicans. Now, as of October 25th, polls say that this time around, in 2024, there will be 40% of Latinos that will vote Republican, which is approximately 8.24 million. So, let’s do some simple math: Year 2024 8.24 27% 2020 5.56 40% ______ Net Increase in Rep. Latino Voters: 2.68 million

So, as shown in my Table below, the net increase that we can expect just from these two demographics combines is approximately 3.82 more Republican voters as follows: YEAR 2024 Increase in Blacks: 1.14 million Increase in Latinos: 2.68 million ______ Rep. Voter Increase: 3.82 million

But wait, it does not stop here. Let’s take it one step further. How about the overall national polls? In 2020, polls had projected Trump 44.4% vs. Biden 51.8%. Actual exit polls were, Biden 51.3%, and Trump 46.8%, which means that there was a 2.4% net underestimate in the projections, equivalent to another 3.87 million more Republican votes as follows: YEAR 2020 Actual 74.2 46.8% Projected 70.4 44.4% ______ Difference: 3.87 2.4%

Bottom line on the aforementioned analysis, if my assumptions are correct, our Republican vote should increase by a total of 7.69 million votes as shown in Table below: Increase in Blacks: 1.14 million Increase in Latinos: 2.68 million Increase Polling Error: 3.87 million ______

Total Rep. Voter Increase: 7.69 million

Notably, the increase in Republican voters overpasses Biden’s margin of victory over Trump in 2020 which was 7.05 million.

3) Electoral College Analysis:

So, as we well know, even if we win the popular vote as assumed in my aforementioned analysis, what about the electoral college? As we speak, I will use as the base for my analysis, the latest Fox News polling on the electoral college, which has Harris with 226 votes that come from States that are historically Democrat [Blue] and Trump with 219 votes that come form States that are historically Republican [Red].

Since the total number of possible electoral votes is 538, that means that there are 93 votes that could go either way. These 93 votes come from what is commonly known as the “Swing” states, as follows: 1 Arizona 11 2 Georgia 16 3 Michigan 16 4 Nevada 6 5 North Carolina 15 6 Pennsylvania 19 7 Wisconsin 10 _____ Total: 93

So, as we all know, the magic number to be elected president is = 270 electoral votes. As such, based on today’s standings, Trump is short by 51 votes and Harris is short by 44 votes. Needless to say, mathematically speaking there are unlimited number of possible combinations for either candidate to reach the 270 – too many to even consider.

Notably, as we speak, polls have Trump ahead in every one of the Swing States, which would actually give Trump a total of 312 electoral votes. In 2020, Biden won with 306 electoral votes. So, if we assume that popular vote in these elections will favor Trump / Republicans by 7.6 million votes as per my analysis above, this will resemble Biden’s victory in 2020 of 7.05 million, consequently it is fair and safe to assume that Trump could win with a similar result of over 300 electoral votes.

That said, however, I am going to be a slightly more conservative and I am going to Harris the benefit of the doubt and give her Michigan and Wisconsin as per Table that follows: Trump Harris 219 226 1 Arizona 11 - 2 Georgia 16 - 3 Michigan - 16 4 Nevada 6 - 5 North Carolina 15 - 6 Pennsylvania 19 - 7 Wisconsin - 10 ______ _____ Total: 286 252

Notwithstanding the inherent flaws of all forecasts, and notwithstanding that I am neither a pollster nor a seer, still, my humble prediction in lieu of my analysis made is that Donald J. Trump will not only win the elections, but, moreover, I see Trump winning them by a landslide, both the popular vote as well as the electoral college.

Before closing I do want to bring to your attention, that, in my predictions I purposely left out the potential additional votes to our Republican Party relative to other groups such as young voters, Jews for Israel, all of which, independently and/or combined may very well enhance my predictions by yet even more votes. I did so as to leave myself with a margin or contingency for error on my assumptions.

I will close by saying, I tried my best to leave passion out of my analysis, however difficult that was. I must say though, I pray to God that I am right in my final predictions, and I certainly hope that they all come true as I am sure you do too. Only thing left now is to wait until November 5, to see how right or wrong I was. God save us and God save the United States of American